When El Niño last struck Somalia in 2023, it caused the worst floods seen in the country for a century, displacing more than 1.2 million people.
Coordinated airstrikes on territory held by al-Shabaab are driving the civilian population to find refuge alongside a river where rising water levels are a threat to safety.
Africom targets lawful military objectives and takes feasible measures to mitigate civilian harm.” Nevertheless, many wonder if the opportunity to weaken al-Shabaab using the weather was too tempting to ignore, offering a catastrophic drowning event blamed on a supercharged El Niño.
Pinning the population – which includes large numbers of women and children – on the river’s floodplain has raised concerns of large-scale deaths in the months ahead.
Analysts have questioned the ethics of the US military allegedly using mapping data from flood-prone areas – conceived to mitigate civilian casualties – to inflict harm.
Corroborating testimonies describe a prolonged – and seemingly indiscriminate – campaign of airstrikes against al-Shabaab that appears to have killed many civilians.
You capture the cumulative impact of a sustained airstrikes campaign in an El Niño flooding context.” US officials deny exploiting climatic factors.
Her home, five metres from the flooded River Juba in southern Somalia, never stood a chance.