The benchmark selling price of natural gas, which includes energy costs on wholesale markets and non-supply costs such as transportation and storage, has jumped 42.4% since the start of the year. The benchmark sales price for natural gas increased on Sunday, November 1, by 6.6% for the six million households benefiting from indexed prices, which represents 60% of residential gas subscribers.
On the wholesale markets, the Dutch TTF futures contract exceeds 90 euros/MWh and reached 97.50 euros/MWh on Monday October 26, a level not seen since December 2022 and the energy shock linked to the outbreak of war in Ukraine.
So far, the rise in prices linked to the conflict in the Gulf has had little impact on household bills because it occurred in spring and summer, a period when gas is only used for cooking and hot water.
This new increase comes precisely at the time of turning the radiators back on, while the return of cold weather will weigh on the bills of these households whose prices vary every month depending on market prices.
This situation has forced certain countries, mainly Asian, to turn to other suppliers, causing strong competition for gas supplies and an increase in prices.
If the situation remains “roughly stable by the end of the year”, the Energy Regulatory Commission estimates that the annual bill for 2026 could be on average 11% higher than the bill for 2025 for subscribers to indexed tariffs. According to the Energy Regulatory Commission, the average reference price will be 194.90 euros including tax per megawatt hour in November, compared to 182.88 euros in October and 136.88 euros/MWh in January 2026.