This survey was conducted among 4,172 people and has a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points. It does not provide a breakdown of seats, but it sheds light on the shift in votes between the two main camps. The Sigma Dos poll is based on 5,460 online interviews and has a margin of error of three percentage points. It reports a net transfer of 832,000 voters from the left to the right.
The three institutes — 40dB, Sigma Dos and Imop — do not measure the same indicators and do not report the same margins of error. Their results nevertheless converge on an advantage for the right and on a PSOE that is recovering some ground without closing the gap in seats.
These studies show, however, that the PP would need the support of the far-right party Vox to obtain a majority in Parliament. The lead in voting intentions therefore does not, at this stage, translate into a majority on its own.
Another poll, conducted by Imop for El Confidencial, focused on vote transfers rather than seat projections. It highlights a decline in voter loyalty to the Socialists and an increase for the PP.
This movement of voters weighs on the reading of the upcoming election. The Socialists' relative recovery after the rail accident does not, in these projections, offset the net swing to the right.
They remain, by contrast, far from the 199 seats attributed to the PP and Vox. The study also shows that the right as a whole would obtain a working majority of about 190 seats.
A Sigma Dos poll published by El Mundo indicates that the Socialists are regaining some of the ground lost after the rail accident on the line linking Madrid to Andalusia. According to this survey, they should now win 105 seats. The central question remains that of a parliamentary majority. According to the studies, the PP could obtain it only with Vox, while the Socialists, even as they advance, remain behind in the seat projections.