On the Democratic side, the vote can serve as a referee of the balance of power and of the chances for 2028. Moderate candidates, such as Jon Ossoff, running for re-election in Georgia, hope to benefit from it.
Midterm elections are almost systematically unfavorable to the presidential camp. Donald Trump has not chosen to skip the vote.
Nothing seems able to halt this decline. A majority of voters view his record negatively on immigration, the economy and the cost of living.
The Republican camp currently holds a majority there. The result will largely determine the remainder of Donald Trump's second term.
Donald Trump has multiplied his appearances across the United States in recent weeks to defend Republican candidates.
If the president loses both chambers, his hands will be partly tied by a Democratic majority.
Inflation has not fallen despite the promises made during his election in 2024. It is weighing on household purchasing power.
He is more unpopular than before the 2018 midterms, during his first term. The share of respondents disapproving of his performance surpassed that of his supporters as early as the beginning of March 2025.
Part of the electorate that chose him in 2024 for economic reasons could switch their vote after two years of radical anti-immigration policy.
The 80-year-old head of state has never been so unpopular heading into this vote. On Monday, November 2, his approval rating was only 37.5% positive opinions, according to the New York Times poll aggregator.