Match expectations suggest Australia should secure a comfortable victory, potentially reaching a total that nudges the 99 points scored by the men’s cricket team in Gqeberha. If the winning margin for England is smaller than 68 points, they would require Tonga to pick up the slack through their own winning margin.
If Samoa wins their match, Tonga will qualify in second place to face Australia. Alternatively, if Tonga wins, England could qualify in second place by beating PNG, provided there is a cumulative differential swing of 68 points in their favour.
Australia is expected to beat both Fiji and Cook Islands to top the group. If Australia wins as anticipated, or if Samoa wins, distinct qualification scenarios emerge for Tonga, England, and Papua New Guinea.
Australia faces Fiji in live coverage of the 2026 men’s Rugby League World Cup.
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Australia should win this match comfortably, perhaps even with a total that nudges the 99 the men’s cricket team cobbled together in Gqeberha the other day.
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If Tonga win, England could qualify in second place if they beat PNG and there is a cumulative differential swing of 68 points in their favour.
If the winning margin is smaller than 68, they would need Tonga to pick up the slack in their own winning margin.
The winner of Tonga v Samoa will top the group and (probably) play New Zealand in the semi-finals.