If the American agency has once again shown leniency towards France despite its deficit expected at 5.4% of GDP this year and its debt of 119%, it is because it assumes that a 2027 budget reducing the public deficit will be adopted, while social tensions will moderate somewhat in the coming months.
Moody's has indeed been lenient on several occasions with Paris, whose public finances continue to deteriorate.
This is what makes some observers say that the executive could have made a deal with Moody's.
Moody's indicated that this is not a certainty but a supposition, while the bet is daring knowing that few people believe in the government's capacity to pass a budget allowing a significant reduction in the deficit in 2027.
Moody's is in fact the only rating agency to have spared France by maintaining the French debt rating at Aa3, while seeming to want to wait for the outcome of the parliamentary debates on the 2027 budget before taking action. To everyone's surprise, Moody's refrained from downgrading the French debt rating on Friday, effectively keeping it at Aa3 with a negative outlook despite France's budgetary setbacks and its political instability.
At least, the agency's decision"gives credence to the rumor that the government has reached an agreement with the rating agencies to avoid a downgrade of the French rating, on condition of reducing the deficit below 5% of GDP in 2027.
Moody's is the only rating agency to have spared France by maintaining the French debt rating at Aa3.
But the bet is daring knowing that few people believe in the government's ability to pass a budget that will significantly reduce the deficit in 2027.