Trump returned to the White House as a formidable force after his 2024 election win and initially had healthy approval ratings to match. With the war with Iran dragging on and hitting many Americans in the pocket, his approval ratings have sunk. Final polls taken before the elections suggested his approval rating was around 38 percent. He has faced record low approval ratings in recent months.
Even when a sitting president is more popular than Trump, their party usually loses seats in the midterms. It is a mistake to assume that Trump’s weak approval ratings translate into increasing popularity for Democrats. If Democrats win a large swathe of seats, it will not necessarily be because voters love them — they just hate them a little less.
Thirty-five Senate seats are up, and Democrats will need a net gain of four to win control. Most of the battleground races are close and several sit within the margin of error for pollsters. This is, in reality, where these midterm elections will be won and lost.
Many Republican voters are angry with the president, but not so angry that they would vote for a Democrat. Republican attempts, including from Trump himself, to paint Democrats as dangerous communists have not landed with all voters.
If Democrats win the House, they could try to block legislation Trump wants to pass. Trump will be more concerned about investigations Democrats would be able to launch if they take control of the House.
Inflation has ticked up from 3 percent when Trump took office to 3.7 percent, and economists estimate it would have been lower without his sweeping regime of global tariffs. The price of a gallon of diesel, which was $3.75 before the war started in February, hit a record high of $6.52 in September.
“Prices and groceries high — sky high — gas is sky high,” one voter said. Many voters, including in solidly Republican states, are hurting financially, and polls suggested they may want to make that known at the ballot box. Voters overwhelmingly said they were most concerned about the cost of living as they cast ballots. Food and fuel prices have soared in part due to the president’s aggressive tariffs and an unpopular war with Iran.
He has been campaigning hard, headlining dozens of rallies across the country. At many of those rallies he made a plea to voters. “In this election, I’m asking you to pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot,” he said last month. Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh said the key issues were “the cost of living” and “the undeclared war.”.