The blockade of Hormuz provides an identifiable energy factor, without making it possible to distinguish substitution toward less carbon-intensive sources from a simple drop in demand. The climate significance of 2026 thus remains contingent on confirmation of the trend.
This comparison complicates attribution of the decline. The contraction of economic activity reduces energy needs, a share of which remains fossil. Attributing the drop solely to lower consumption of fossil fuels is therefore not straightforward: these figures may also signal a recession.
The stakes go beyond this single year. If the trend were confirmed in the years ahead, it would mark a historic step in the fight against climate change, by opening a lasting decline in carbon emissions, presented as the only way to halt the rise in warming the planet is experiencing.
The trajectory is not uniform. The sole major exception, India remains in growth, at +4.4%, driven by a sharp increase in its consumption.
The label of historic nonetheless runs up against a recent precedent. The chart series shows that a decline at least as large already occurred in 2020.
The decline in global carbon dioxide emissions observed in 2026 is, according to an analysis, part of the oil crisis opened by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This shock is accelerating the shift toward energy sources that emit less carbon dioxide.