Including emissions from land-use change such as deforestation, total CO2 emissions are projected to rise to 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, from 42.8 billion tonnes the previous year. Fossil carbon dioxide emissions are expected to reach 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026. Emissions from burning oil, gas and coal are the main drivers of climate change.
The decline is driven by the expansion of renewable energy and an oil price shock linked to the Iran war, according to the Global Carbon Budget report. The researchers warned that the fall may be short-lived.
Oil-related emissions are projected to fall 1.9 percent. Gas emissions are set to fall 0.3 percent, while emissions from coal use are expected to rise 0.6 percent. It would be the first annual fall in fossil fuel emissions since 2020, when the pandemic paralysed the global economy, trade and transport.
Global fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall by 0.4 percent in 2026, the first annual drop since the Covid-19 pandemic, researchers said Tuesday. Those emissions rose by 0.9 percent a year on average over the past decade and hit a record high in 2025, the report said. Land-use emissions are projected to rise partly because of peat fires and forest degradation in southeast Asia, the researchers said. They linked those conditions to drier weather associated with this year's exceptionally strong El Nino.